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By David Song, Currency Analyst Mon Sep 27 12:00:00 GMT 2010 Talking Points
Japanese Yen: Weighed By Risk Appetite Pound: Home Prices Fall For Third Month Euro: Looks To Target 50.0% Fib at 1.3500 U.S. Dollar: Chicago Fed, Dallas Fed Index on Tap The Euro bounced back from a low of 1.3425 during the overnight trade following a risk appetite and the single-currency may continue to push higher going into the North American session as the economic docket remains fairly light for Monday. However, as the EUR/USD struggles to push above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.3500, the single-currency may hold within a narrow range unless we see a shift in market sentiment. Indeed, daily studies show that the euro remains overbought following the recent rally from earlier this month, and a corrective retracement may unfold this week as the daily relative strength index falls back from a high of 74. Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development held a cautious outlook for Portugal and said that the debt crisis has weakened the growth prospects for the region as increasing spreads amongst government debt dampens the recovery. As a result, the group encouraged European policy makers to increase taxes while scaling back on public spending, and the ongoing weakness in public finances could the central bank to support the economy going into 2011 as it aims to balance the risks for the region. Nevertheless, as the Irish government is scheduled to announce the cost of saving Anglo Irish Bank Corp. later this week, concerns surrounding the European banking system could spur bearish sentiment towards the single-currency and spark a pullback in the exchange rate as the EUR/USD finds resistance around 1.3500. The British Pound tipped higher during the European trade to reach a fresh monthly high of 1.5852, and the sterling may continue to appreciate throughout the day as the exchange rate clears the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 low to high around 1.5700. As the pound-dollar breaks out of its recent range, price action looks poised to make another run towards 1.6000 as it continues to retrace the decline from the previous month. However, there could be a corrective retracement in the days ahead as the RSI approaches overbought territory, and we may see the GBP/USD carve out a double-top if price action fails to push above 1.6000. As the Bank of England is widely expected to maintain its current policy throughout the remainder of the year, a shift in the vote count remains the only catalyst that could trigger another bullish breakout in the pound-dollar as board member Andrew Sentance continues to push for a 25 rate hike, but a three-way split within the MPC would weigh on the exchange rate as investors speculate the BoE to expand quantitative easing in the coming months. Meanwhile, the economic docket showed home prices in the U.K. weakened for the third month in September, with the Hometrack survey falling 0.4% after contracting 0.3% in the previous month, and the ongoing weakness in the housing market may lead the BoE to support the economy going into the following year as policy makers expect the slack within the economy to bear down on inflation. U.S. dollar price action was mixed overnight, with the USD/JPY tipping to a low of 84.12, and the rebound in market sentiment could drag on the greenback as equity futures foreshadow a higher open for the U.S. market. Nevertheless, the Chicago Fed National Activity index is forecasted to fall back to -0.50 in August from 0.0 in the previous month, while the Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey is projected to increase to -7.0 in September from -13.5 in the month prior, and the mixed batch of data could spur choppy price action amongst the majors as investors weigh the prospects for future growth. Will the EUR/USD Retrace The Rally From Earlier This Month? Join us in the Forum Related Articles: Dollar Loses Growth, Yield and Now Safe Haven Appeal To discuss this report contact David Song, Currency Analyst:dsong@fxcm.com FX Upcoming Chicago Fed National Activity Index (AUG) Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (SEP) Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (SEP) Contracts for the third consecutive month. Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (SEP) Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (AUG) Slower pace of global trade could lead the BoJ to expand monetary policy further. Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (AUG) Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (AUG) Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (AUG) Corporate Service Price (YoY) (AUG) Industrial Profits (YTD) (YoY) (AUG) Compares with an 11% decline in 2009. Fastest pace of growth since June 2009.DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.
* Euro slips, hurt by profit taking and downgrade
* Moody's cuts Anglo Irish Bank ratings
* CFTC data shows shift to euro longs
* Dollar holds above 84 yen JPY=
(Adds quote, updates prices)
By Tamawa Desai
LONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The euro lost ground against the dollar on Monday after ratings firm Moody's cut Anglo Irish Bank's lower-grade debt and kept it on review for a downgrade, highlighting concerns over the euro zone banking sector.
The euro hit a session low of $1.3426 EUR=, and was down nearly 0.1 percent on the day at $1.3477 by 1133 GMT, off a five-month high of $1.3496 EUR= hit on Friday. Traders said stop losses were lined up below $1.3425.
Moody's cut the nationalised bank's senior unsecured debt by three notches to Baa3 -- just one notch above junk status -- and its subordinated debt by six notches to Caa1. [ID:nLDE68Q15A]
"The Moody's downgrade was moderately significant as it takes them ahead of others ... to one notch above junk, and it still remains under review," said Adam Cole, global head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
"With the prospect of more easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve priced in, the focus may move back to Europe."
The single currency had edged lower versus the dollar on profit-taking after gaining some 4 cents since last week, and after failing to break a barrier at $1.3500, traders said.
The euro's next key level was $1.3510, a 50 percent retracement of its fall from above $1.51 last November to its June low below $1.19.
Still, investors will be cautious about pushing the euro too high before banks repay 225 billion euros in European Central Bank loans. The tenders are due to expire this week, with banks preparing to repay 12-, six- and three-month funds on Thursday.
If the results highlight more banking sector troubles, traders may turn cautious on the euro, though other analysts say a withdrawal of funds from the system will boost lending rates and provide support for the single currency.
The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed currency speculators moved to a net long position in the euro for the first time this year. [IMM/FX]
*We welcome comments that advance the story directly or with relevant tangential information. We try to block comments that use offensive language or appear to be spam and review comments frequently to ensure they meet our standards. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters.This plain-English guide shows you how day trading works, identifies its all-too-numerous pitfalls, and get you started with an action plan. From classic and renegade strategies to the nitty-gritty of daily trading practices, it gives you the knowledge and confidence you'll need to keep a cool head, manage risk, and make decisions instantly as you buy and sell your positions. Learn how to:
You'll also find Top-Ten Lists of good reasons to go into day trading, or run from it in terror, as well as lists of the most common (and expensive) mistakes day traders make. Read Day Trading For Dummies and get the tips, guidance, and solid foundation you need to succeed in this thrilling, lucrative and rewarding career.
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Forex Trading Setup September 27, 2010
Tools:
Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Fibonacci Study
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Multiple Time-Frame Analysis Stalking EUR/GBP for Topping
Fan Yang CMT CTA
Currency Analyst
Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analyses.
All screenshots are made from VT Trader 2.0 and are of actual market data at the time of the screenshot.
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OSAKA (Dow Jones)--Bank of Japan Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa said Monday that the central bank will look into the impact of the yen's rise on the nation's economy at a policy board meeting next ...